The Watchman On The Wall

The Watchman On The Wall
Eph 6:12 For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places. Verse 13 Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Middle East Update

Herod's Temple
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah



LEBANON
Hizbullah stands a good chance of winning Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections. That could mean a stunning shake-up for one of the Middle East's most volatile countries, replacing a pro-US government with a coalition dominated from behind the scenes by Hizbullah, the proxy of Iran and Syria in Lebanon.

The US ambassador in Beirut has expressed concern, and Hizbullah's opponents warn that the West will isolate Lebanon and Washington will reduce its millions in aid.

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah’s deputy, Sheikh Naim Kassem, says the West will have to accept the election results. Kassem said foreign diplomats are already approaching Hizbullah, "some wanting to open a new page." Britain has said it is willing to talk to Hizbullah's "political wing" and a Hizbullah member of the current parliament recently traveled to London.

A Hizbullah win would mean changes that would dismay the West and Israel. It would mean less pressure from Lebanon's government to rein in Hizbullah's arsenal of rockets pointed at the Jewish state and more backing for efforts to change Lebanon's electoral system to solidify Shi'ite power further.
Iran and Syria will succeed in adding Lebanon to their bloc; it would be a huge defeat for the West.

Lebanon has a complex political system, no group can rule alone. The 128-member legislature must be half Christian and half-Muslim, with the Christians divided among Orthodox and Catholic parties and Muslims among Shi'ite, Sunni, Druse and Alawite sects. Moreover, in any government, the prime minister must be a Sunni, so Hizbullah would need allies from that sect.
Lebanon's population of 4 million is roughly divided in thirds between Christians, Sunnis and Shi'ites, with smaller sects mixed in. The exact numbers are unknown because a census would be too politically risky - the last one was held in 1932.

The pro-US bloc - largely Sunnis with Christian allies - holds 70 seats in the 128-member parliament, so a handful of races could tip the balance.

The leader of the pro-US bloc, Sunni billionaire Saad Hariri, said a Hizbullah win would "put Lebanon into very difficult times," threatening its economic growth.

Since 2006, the United States has committed over a billion dollars to Lebanon, including $410 million to the country's security forces.

A victory by Hizbullah would push “The Party of God” to fulfill its campaign promise to eliminate the sectarian distribution of parliament seats, which would boost the power of the growing Shi'ite population. Hizbullah would also see a win as a mandate for its opposition to US Middle East policies and its strong anti-Israeli line.

ISRAEL
A classified assessment prepared for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Obama would diminish U.S. strategic cooperation with Israel. An Israeli official said, "Obama wants to make friends with our worst enemies and until now the worst enemies of the United States under Obama’s policy, we are more than irrelevant, we have become an obstacle."

Israeli sources say the Obama administration will reject Israel’s threat intelligence on Iran and Syria.

On April 20, Israeli military intelligence commander Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin warned the Israeli cabinet that Obama was prepared to allow Iran to assemble nuclear weapons and support Hamas and Hizbullah. General Yadlin said, "Obama wants to advance the peace process in the direction of realistic discussions with extremist elements.” Obama will want to show Iran, Syria and radical Muslims that the United States can pressure Israel. The pressure has already begun and will intensify in the coming years.

Yadlin said Obama was courting the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and that both Damascus and Tehran have not significantly reduced their support for insurgency groups in the region. Obama's policies have generated dismay among Arab allies of the United States. He said Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia were concerned that U.S. reconciliation efforts would encourage Tehran and its proxies to intensify destabilization efforts. "The Arab world is starting to understand that Iranian proxies are a threat to the region," Yadlin said. "The Hizbullah activity in Egypt is not an isolated incident. Iran has infrastructures across the world seeking to perpetrate terror attacks against Israel."

At the same time, the Obama administration was expected to restrict U.S. arms exports to Israel in an effort to deny systems that could be used in any attack against Iran or Syria. The intelligence sources said this policy was implemented during the last year of the Bush administration and would intensify under Obama.

Yadlin said, "President Bashar Assad hopes to turn over a new leaf with U.S. President Barack Obama. However, while Western powers are being hosted at the palace in Damascus, Syria is continuing to be used as the back yard of the axis of evil. Assad is letting Hizbullah and Iranian forces freely conduct their affairs in Syria and use its territory for Hizbullah deployment."

The Israeli intelligence assessment envisioned that Obama would maintain his reconciliation policy with Iran and Syria through at least 2010. The sources said the assessment determined that Obama was convinced that such a policy would enable a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Sometime in 2010 the Iranians will have enough fissile material for a single nuclear weapon; the IAEA says 25 kilograms are necessary. The Iranians could use the fissile material for an underground explosion or wait a year or two and build up a stockpile of about 75 kilograms of fissile material and detonate a bomb above ground.

Personally I believe the Iranians will do an above ground detonation because it will make a bigger public relations splash and rally Muslim allies with news of an "Islamic Bomb".

The Iranians cannot place a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile capable of reaching Israel. However, they could purchase that technology from North Korea. The Iranian air force is weak and limited in range so it is not the Iranian choice to strike Israel. However, the Russians are upgrading Iran's Air Force.

Israeli officials believe Iran will become a nuclear capable country next year, 2010. According to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by 2013.

Obama's administration believes America can live with a nuclear-armed Iran and Neville Chamberlain told us he preserved peace in our times and that he signed a peace deal with Hitler. Israel will have to part ways with the Obama administration on this point. A nuclear Iran will be able to bend Jerusalem to the will of its radical enemies and neighbors.

Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, with Saudi backing, is standing up to the Iranians and their proxies Hamas and Hizbullah. In April 2009, the Egyptians reported they broken up a plot by a Hizbullah network that operated in Cairo and the Sinai Peninsula. The plotters planned to attack Mubarak and his regime.

Mubarak has criticized Washington's courtship of the revolutionary Islamic republic.

The Egyptians have accused Iran, Syria, Qatar, Hizbullah and Hamas of a conspiracy to overthrow Egyptian government and Nasrallah in Lebanon admitted to the plot to overthrow Mubarak.

Obama is not daunted by the radicalism or enmity of his new friends. At the Summit of All Americas, Obama greeted Hugo Chavez 24 hours after the Venezuelan ruler said: "The United States Empire is on its way down and will be finished in the near future, inshallah! (Allah willing)"

Venezuela and Israel recently severed ties because Chavez hosted a delegation of Hizbullah, an internationally branded a terrorist organization, in Caracas.

Obama continues to woo Bashar Assad of Syria despite Assad’s blunt refusal to loosen his strategic ties with Tehran and his refusal to stop supporting Hizbullah in Lebanon.

For the first time in years, the administration sent a high-ranking delegation to Syria's Independence Day celebrations at a Washington Hotel. Jeffrey Feltman, former ambassador and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs in the U.S. State Department, led the delegation.

Netanyahu gave a condition for peacemaking to George Mitchell. Netanyahu said that Israel be recognized as a Jewish state. Palestinian Authority leaders instantly rejected this condition. Of course, this got very little attention in Washington or the media.

Netanyahu will meet Obama in Washington this month. Netanyahu already knows Israel is no longer a prime factor in US global policy. The U.S. has fundamentally reshuffled its Middle East allegiances and alliances and in the long run the American people will suffer.

Chief of staff Rahm Emanuel told Jewish leaders that if Israel wants America's help for thwarting Iran's nuclear program, Israel must first start evacuating West Bank settlements.

So what options are left to Israel at this juncture?
1. To bow under to Obama tempest until it blows over. There will be a long wait for the Israelis in that option.
2. Netanyahu could follow Prime Minister Menahem Begin example from 1981. Begin stood up to Ronald Reagan's fierce objections and sent the Israeli Air force to smash the Iraqi nuclear reactor before it was operational. Saddam Hussein never rebuilt the facility. By following in Begin's footsteps before it is too late, Netanyahu would change the rules of the game regionally and globally.
3. Israel could go for a more modest target, one of Iran's faithful surrogates – Syria, Hamas or Hizbullah. If the Gaza offensive against Hamas last January was meant to send this message, it failed. Hamas is still the dominant Palestinian power and Barack Obama was not swayed from his new Middle East policy of appeasement with Iran and other radical world leaders.
4. Israel could decide to stand alone, as the Jews have done many times in history. That will be a sad day in history for the American people!

REBUILD THE JEWISH TEMPLE
Moshe Feiglin, head of the Jewish Leadership Movement said that if he were elected prime minister, he would try to rebuild the Temple in Jerusalem. He said, "I don't know if I will have the merit of doing something that is the aspiration of every Jew but if I become prime minister I will take away control over the Temple Mount from the Wakf [the Islamic trust] and reinstate Jewish sovereignty over the entire mount and, hopefully, rebuild the Temple." Feiglin said that rebuilding the Temple and all that it symbolized was the essence of a Jewish state.

Feiglin said he still harbored ambitions of replacing Netanyahu and becoming Israel's next prime minister. Meanwhile, Rabbi Zalman Melamed, a leading spiritual leader of the settlement movement said he envisioned a time when a majority of Israelis would be religious. He said, "There is a steady process unfolding in which the state is gradually becoming more religious. There are growing numbers of newly religious families. There is a deep feeling that people want the redemption to arrive already. And part of that process will be the rebuilding of the Temple."

The death of Yeshua in 30 A.D. marked the end of the times of the Jews, or the time when one had to become a Jew to find God. For 40 years, Jewish believers, who were mostly in and around Jerusalem, continued in their Messianic faith. Gentiles, on the other hand, without taking on Jewish tradition, accepted lesous (the Greek spelling of Jesus) as Lord and Savior and continued to follow their Greek culture.
Then came the destruction of Jerusalem in 70 A.D. and the times of the Gentiles, which began with the death of Yeshua, emerged in its fullness after 40 years. The times of the Jews, which began to ebb with the captivities, heard its death knell with the crucifixion of Yeshua. It finally came to a total halt with the destruction of Jerusalem.

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