The Watchman On The Wall

The Watchman On The Wall
Eph 6:12 For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places. Verse 13 Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Is The U.S. Facing Structural Unemployment?

Many economists are predicting that high levels of unemployment will be with us for some time. Time magazine predicts we will be "Unemployment Nation" while a recent AP article predicts: "High Jobless Rates could be the New Normal."
These predictions stem from the economic rule known as Okun's Law. Economist Arthur Okun stated that when an economy grows, it produces jobs at a predictable rate, and when it shrinks, it sheds them as a similar regular pace. But the American economy is shedding jobs much faster than Okun&'s law predicts. That has economists concerned.
The total number of nonfarm jobs in the U.S. economy is about the same as it was in 1999. If we experience moderate growth (as predicted by the Federal Reserve) that means we could be in for a decade without any significant expansion in employment.
If you look at the previous times of significant unemployment, they come in two types. The Reagan recession ended with workers returning to jobs that were the same or similar to the ones they lost. But the Great Depression in the 1930s was an example of a structural change. The jobs people lost (mostly in agriculture) never came back. Workers instead had to move to industry. Economists believe that our current recession looks more like the latter than the former.
Those proposing government work projects like those in the 1930s better reconsider according to Time. "In the 1930s, you could throw 10,000 people with shovels at dam or road projects. Today the work of 10,000 shovels can be done by a few machines-and it was a lot easier to persuade farmers to switch to ditchdigging than it would be to get laid-off hedge-fund traders to switch to sewer repair, appealing as such an idea might be."
Finding solutions to our current employment problem will be difficult. But one thing we can know for certain, we don't need more government spending and borrowing that will kill economic growth and economic recovery. I'm Kerby Anderson, and that's my point of view.

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