The Watchman On The Wall

The Watchman On The Wall
Eph 6:12 For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places. Verse 13 Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand.

Monday, August 7, 2017

1 Million Casualties, Far Too Low!

North Korea Vs. South Korea - Comparison Of Military Capabilities. What Would a New War in Korea Look Like?

The First Korean War 1950 - 1953

The estimated strength of the North Korean army in 1950: 135,000 men. The estimated strength of the South Korean army in 1950: 95,000 men. Number of Americans killed in the Korean War: 36,000. Number of Americans wounded in the Korean War: 105,000. "other deaths" meaning deaths in the war zone from illness, accidents and other non-battle causes at 3,262.  There are 7,747 American soldiers still unaccounted for from the Korean War as of June 2017.

First Korean War dead statistics:

SoKo Military
SoKo Civilian
SoKo Military + Civilian
NoKo Military
NoKo Civilian
NoKo Military + Civilian 1,316,579

China 460,000
Combined Chinese and North Korean military dead
1.7M (from all causes)
Other UN: 2,186
By nation
1,078 British

Your Watchman, a retired U.S. Army intelligence officer, would like to emphasize that fighting the North Koreans and their potential allies will not be like fighting Iraqis or Afghanis. Most of the North Korean military is brain washed to fight and die for the communist regime. They have been brain washed since they were children to hate the United States. I also believe that if it comes to war we should use tactical nuclear weapons against North Korea, we should not fight a ground war on mainland Asia, the casualties would be enormous.

North Korea Vs. South Korea - Comparison Of Military Capabilities. What Would a New War in Korea Look Like?

North Korea Vs. South Korea - Comparison Of Military Capabilities. What Would a New War in Korea Look Like?

Present day military strength

The North Korean Army is 1,200,000 strong, with more than 3,500 main battle tanks made up of ageing T-34, T-54, T-55 and T-62 types dating back decades. It is estimated to have more than 21,000 different artillery pieces.
A further 600,000 personnel in reserve status. In addition, including the Worker-Peasant Red Guards, there are approximately 6 million additional personnel organized in some type of quasi-military establishment. This means that roughly one quarter of the total population of the country has some form of military training and familiarization and can be mobilized for national defense emergencies. These units are most likely provisioned with older small arms, little in the way of ammunition and equipment, and there combat value is minimal. 

The is what Air Force general Lemay said about the Korean war. “After destroying North Korea’s 78 cities and thousands of her villages, and killing countless numbers of her civilians, General LeMay remarked, “Over a period of three years or so we killed off – what – twenty percent of the population.” 

It is now believed that the population north of the imposed 38th Parallel lost nearly a third its population of 8 – 9 million people during the 37-month long “hot” war, 1950 – 1953.

The Republic of Korea (ROK) Army has a total active personnel of 490,000, yet military reforms aim to reduce this total down to 400,000. There are an additional 4.5 million men and women in reserve status, split between the Mobilization Reserve Force (first 4 years of reserve duty) and the Homeland Reserve Force (last 4 years of reserve duty). The ROK has a system of compulsory military service for all males between the ages of 18 and 35. Two years are spent on active duty, and an additional 8 years in reserve status.

the ROK can count on the added resources of the U.S. forces based on the peninsula, as well as those in Japan, Guam, and Saipan. The United States has a 28,000 strong contingent of troops based in South Korea, and an additional 50,000 troops permanently based in Japan.

The United States is preparing for several options to counter the growing threat from North Korea, including launching a “preventive war,” national security adviser H.R. McMaster (HRM) said in an interview that aired Saturday. The comments come after North Korea carried out two tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the past month and after the president said he has been clear he will not tolerate North Korea’s threats to attack the U.S with nuclear weapons.
The key excerpts (full transcript)H.H.: Let me switch if I can to North Korea, which is really pressing. And remind our audience, at the Aspen Institute ten days ago, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Joe Dunford, said, “There’s always a military– option and it would be horrific.” Lindsey Graham said last week  “We need to destroy the regime and their deterrent.” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Tuesday, I believe North Korea, is not leaving us no choice but to protect ourselves. And then the Chairman of the Chief of Staff of the Army said, “Just because every choice is a bad choice doesn’t mean you don’t have to choose.” Are we looking at a preemptive strike? Are you trying to prepare us, you being collectively, the administration and people like Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton for a first strike North Korea?
H.R.M. Well, we really, what you’re asking is– is are we preparing plans for a preventive war, right? A war that would prevent North Korea from threatening the United States with a nuclear weapon. And the president’s been very clear about it. He said, “He’s not gonna tolerate North Korea being able to threaten the United States” if they have nuclear weapons that can threaten the United States; It’s intolerable from the president’s perspective. So of course, we have to provide all options to do that. And that includes a military option.
Now, would we like to resolve it short of what would be a very costly war, in terms of the suffering of mainly the South Korean people? The ability of the North Korean regime to hold the South hostage to conventional fire’s capabilities, artillery and so forth with Seoul being so close. We’re cognizant of all of that. And so what we have to do everything we can to pressure Kim Jong-un and those around him so that they conclude, it is in their interest to denuclearize. And there are really I think three critical things that came out of the president’s very successful summit with– President Xi of China that were different from past efforts to work with China, which has always been, you know, the desire to work with China on the North Korean problem.
How many casualties will there be: HH: In 1994, when the first North Korean deal with signed, the people who executed it, Gallucci, Dan Poneman, Joe Wit wrote a book. They quoted a general saying, “If there is a conflict,” called Going Critical, “there will be a million casualties.” A million casualties. Is that still a good estimate of what happens if– preemptive strike unfolds in North Korea, General? 
HRM: One thing about war. It’s impossible oftentimes to predict. It’s always impossible to predict the future course of events. Because war is a continuous interaction of opposites, a continuous interaction between your forces and those of the enemy. It involves not just the capability to use force, but also intentions and things that are just unknowable at the outset. And so I think it’s important to look at a range of estimates of what could happen, because it’s unpredictable. And so you always have to ask the question, “What happens next? What are the risks? How do you mitigate those risks?” And obviously war is the most serious decision any leader has to make. And so what can we do to make sure we exhaust our possibilities and exhaust our other opportunities to accomplish this very clear objective of denuclearization of the peninsula short of war?
Should Americans be concerned:
HHHow concerned should the American people be that we are actually on the brink of a war with North Korea?
HRM: Well, I think it’s impossible to overstate the danger associated with this. I think it’s impossible to overstate the danger associated with a rogue, brutal regime, I mean, Kim murdered his own brother with nerve agent in an airport. “I mean, think about what he’s done in terms of his own brutal repression of not only members of his regime but his own family.
On Tuesday,  Sen. Lindsey Graham said that the president told him there would be a war with North Korea if the regime continues to try to hit America with an ICBM. The South Carolina Republican Senator said that President Trump has indicated to him that the administration is prepared to strike North Korea to prevent an attack against the U.S.  Graham was asked if whether a viable military option exists in the region, Graham responded: “They’re wrong.  There is a military option to destroy North Korea’s program and North Korea itself.”

As reported last Friday, North Korea claimed that its latest missiles can now strike anywhere in the United States, delivering nuclear warheads. Experts have said that the country’s missile program has greatly accelerated in recent months putting it far ahead of previous predictions about when it could launch reliable long-range missiles. Speaking in recent days, several experts said that an attack would be the deadliest the U.S. has ever received and potentially kill more than 100,000 people if it struck in large population centers like New York City or Los Angeles.
HRM: “I’m not going to confirm [whether the latest ICBM could reach anywhere in the U.S. but whether it could reach San Francisco or Pittsburgh or Washington, I mean how much does that matter? It’s a grave threat,” “It’s impossible to overstate the danger associated with a rogue, brutal regime.”
McMaster cautioned that he was aware of the fact that any strike against North Korea could bring about a “very costly war” that would cause immense “suffering to the South Korean people.”
Last month, CIA Director Mike Pompeo floated another option for dealing with the North Korea threat, saying that he was “hopeful we will find a way to separate that regime from this system.” North Korea responded by threatening swift and brutal consequences for any attempt to topple Kim.
“Should the U.S. dare to show even the slightest sign of an attempt to remove our supreme leadership, we will strike a merciless blow at the heart of the U.S. with our powerful nuclear hammer, honed and hardened over time,” a foreign ministry spokesman said.
Still, McMaster did not rule out such an attempt when asked whether it could be a legitimate tool. “I think it depends on the legal justifications for that. And this goes back to just war theory. And what is the nature of the risk? And does that risk justify acting in defense of your people and your vital interests?”
Last week, South Korean press reported that South Korea’s military is preparing a “surgical strike” scenario that could wipe out North Korean command and missile and nuclear facilities following an order by South Korea’s president Moon Jae-In.

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